Chelsea's squandered opportunities highlight why they're not in the title race

LONDON — Enzo Maresca's earlier observations were accurate: Chelsea is not in the Premier League title race at this point in the season.

Saturday’s 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace continued a worrying trend that has plagued the Blues since the holiday period, where they have consistently failed to convert their dominance into goals, only to be punished for their missed opportunities.

Chelsea initially looked comfortable at Selhurst Park, taking a 1-0 lead with Cole Palmer’s composed finish in the 14th minute, following a well-executed assist from Jadon Sancho. For much of the first half, Palace struggled to make an impact, and Chelsea looked in control.

However, Chelsea failed to capitalize on their chances to extend the lead, and in the 82nd minute, Jean-Philippe Mateta finished off a well-crafted move involving Ismaïla Sarr and Eberechi Eze to level the score. Maresca, clearly frustrated, watched as the scenario he had hoped to avoid unfolded before him.

"Just a few weeks ago, we were talking about the title race, but we knew teams like Newcastle and Aston Villa would be in the mix," Maresca reflected. "[Manchester] City will always be there. For me, it's not about focusing on the table; it's about improving. Our performance was good both with and without the ball. But at this point in the season, I expected moments like this, where not every game will end in a win.

"Sometimes it’s for various reasons, and today, if I had to pinpoint why we didn’t win, it’s because we weren’t clinical enough when we had the chance to finish the game. At 2-0, the match is likely over. If you leave yourself open, you risk conceding on transitions or set pieces."

Maresca had warned that Chelsea could not realistically be considered title contenders when they were just two points behind Liverpool on December 15 after a 2-1 win over Brentford. Since then, they have drawn 0-0 at Everton, lost at home to Fulham, and suffered a defeat at Ipswich Town, followed by this latest draw at Palace.

Despite dominating possession and generating more chances, Chelsea has failed to turn their superior expected goals (xG) into wins. Over the past four matches, Chelsea registered 61 shots, while their opponents managed just 39.

"I’ve always said that creating chances is key," Maresca said. "As long as you're doing that, you're on the right path. But then you need to finish those chances. Take the Ipswich game, for example—we created plenty of opportunities. Sometimes that’s just the way football works. Sometimes one chance is enough to score, other times you need ten chances to score two. Right now, that’s where we are."

"So, what do we do? We continue to increase the intensity in training as we prepare for the next games, even though the players’ effort and intentions are already at a high level. We know there's room for improvement, but we’re also aware that we are one of the top teams when it comes to scoring goals right now."

Maresca’s point holds weight. Palmer’s goal—his 13th in just 20 league games—was Chelsea's 39th goal of the season.

For comparison, Chelsea only managed 38 goals in total last season, a campaign hampered by an influx of new players and the arrival of head coach Mauricio Pochettino. Maresca’s leadership has brought stability this season, something the club had been lacking since Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital took over in 2022.

Despite the disappointing result, there were still positives to take from the Palace match. Chelsea’s focus now turns to the transfer market, but the club is already committed to paying £25 million to permanently sign Jadon Sancho in the summer, as stipulated by the terms of their loan agreement with Manchester United.

Sancho’s assist for Palmer’s goal was a thing of beauty, as he left Palace’s Chris Richards behind with a slick stepover, showcasing the quality that has previously made him an attractive target for Manchester United, Manchester City, and Borussia Dortmund.

This time last year, Sancho was training alone after a falling out with then-United manager Erik ten Hag. His career was at a crossroads, and just days later, he rejoined Borussia Dortmund on loan.

Now, signs of improvement are clear, but he faded in the second half as Palace grew into the game. In truth, the bigger culprit was Nicolas Jackson, who squandered three excellent chances, including one in the second half. The tense atmosphere at the stadium suggested that if Chelsea had added a second goal, the game would have been over as a contest.

For a time, it looked like 18-year-old debutant Josh Acheampong would mark his first league start with a clean sheet. Maresca expressed frustration over the absence of centre-backs Wesley Fofana and Benoît Badiashile, whose prolonged injuries have affected Chelsea’s ability to defend effectively against specific opponents, particularly lone strikers like Dominic Solanke (Tottenham) and Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa).

Mateta, much like those strikers, caused problems for Chelsea, but Acheampong’s physicality allowed the team to maintain some control until a collective dip in performance in the second half.

Chelsea is not alone in hoping for a slip-up from Liverpool to open up the title race, but if this trend continues, Maresca may soon find himself focused on a top-four battle, with the title increasingly out of reach, just as he had predicted.